Bryan Mills
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Yep, the racists swung it.

11/14/2016

3 Comments

 
As a lecturer who, for his sins, gets to teach sampling and statistics I remain interested in the narrowness of the referendum vote.  What is particularly interesting is that set of people who are undecided – as if often the case these fickle individuals can swing results.  This led me to look back over a long set of data for the referendum to see if I could detect swings.  The first chart is fairly self explanatory – the undecideds mostly swung toward leave.
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Serendipity stuck its nose in, as it so often does, and the following chart also popped up, in that way Google throws up things vaguely linked to what you search at times.

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This immediately caught my attention.  There was a clear spike in attitudes on immigration that began to harden just as the referendum campaign kicked off last year.    Again I looked for longer data. 
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It would seem that post-financial crash people were, understandably, mostly concerned with the economy and this matches a desire to leave the EU shown in the first chart (as people sort to blame existing structures for a failure to protect them?).  By 2015 though views on the economy had mellowed just as the economy had begun to normalise and support for the EU grew.  There were no new shocks to the economy in 2015, no new immigration data or shifts in the UK.  All that happened in 2015/16 was a campaign by the Brexit group and its follows in the mass media that immigration was the ‘problem’ and leaving the EU was the solution.    So there you have it.  While a rump of the leave supporters probably would hold that view come what may they were pushed over the finish line by a tide of anti-immigrant racism.  Whilst that is not a PC thing to say it is evident in the data.    It’s not austerity or the economy but successful propaganda that appealed to some people’s deep seated mistrust of foreigners that seems to have won out.

3 Comments
Reboner
11/14/2016 02:50:19 am

On a more anecdotal level I have talked to several Remain voters who if not racist/xenophobic (imo at least one is both) are hostile to all or most immigration economic issues played a part. A could had even voted UKIP in the past. One was vocally leave (admittedly before the date was announced) who turned Remain after it was pointed out that his job would be much more secure if exporting to Europe remained easy. Another was a business owner who realised themselves that they'd take a hit of the UK leaves. I wonder how well the anti-immigrant crowd on the leave side would of voted if the felt they had a stake in continued membership. Would an accurate perception of material circumstances have been able to overcome anti-immigrant propaganda?

Reply
gary price
11/14/2016 02:59:45 am

Hi Bryan, like yourself I am shocked by recent events and the rise of xenophobia here and it seems throughout the Western world. The question I ask is "why?" Of course there are some people who are narrow minded bigots who hold rascist views. But why the recent increase. I think the reality (in the UK) is that since 2008 and especially since the change of govt in 2010, people have seen services stretched, housing becoming a real problem, cost of living rising, wages not, and a general negativity being espoused by govt and media...."we have to make cuts, (like corporation tax?) too many people on benefits etc and high levels of immigration seeming to exacerbate these problems. I think the economic policy of austerity, cuts to services, constantly being told there's no money etc has led to a feeling of "not enough to go round" . Also the sensationist stories of terrorism, jihadis etc and just fear fear fear! The politicos have realised (or re-realised) that fear works. "Tell the people they are in danger, or standard of living will fall etc and they will follow you to any sort of madness" Goebells was it who said something like that? There you are I would like to believe that its not as simple as people being rascist, but rather that they are afraid and therefore lend their support to those who (with rascist intentions) purport to having a solution to their fear.

Reply
Rory
11/14/2016 04:25:17 am

Does being anti the current immigration policy = being racist ?
I'd say not necessarily.
I'm VERY anti the current UK immigration, due to EU membership, situation. I know many others who share this view. None want less immigration. All want more UK control over it, so that it is based on who we want and who we want to help, not an open door if you happen to be an EU citizen.
The post Brexit vote Panorama programme had many areas of the UK, that are recent or 1 / 2 generation immigrants voting Brexit because they are fed up with the impact of the current open door immigration to the rest of the EU.
Yes, there were lots of shocking, fundamentally wrong, racist, bigoted media adverts during the EU referendum campaign. That does not mean that all or most or a significant number voted for Brexit due to being racist.
Your article and the graph implies direct data to show this to be a fact. I'm challenging this assertion.

Reply



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    Dr Bryan Mills

    "There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. Some kind of high powered mutant never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die" Hunter S Thompson describing the author in 1971.

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